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A lot has been written over the past few years about the impact of Artificial Intelligence AI on different segments of our economy. Most of the attention recently has been focused on driverless cars and vehicles as Google and others have taken the once far-fetched Jetsons prediction and brought it to the verge of reality. This raises a very interesting and frightening question for real estate owners. What happens to our office buildings when the white-collar workforce starts to disappear? Today, prototype robots have demonstrated the ability to outperform surgeons, lawyers and stock traders.
Technology has even made it possible to create movies starring actors who are no longer living. Many of the industries that will be impacted by AI are the largest occupiers of office space.
Large, national firms make up a large chunk of this industry. One of the major drivers of Am Law and Am Law firm profitability over the past 20 years have been mass tort and class action litigation, where most of the billable hours involve document management and discovery—tasks that AI will soon be able to handle. AI programs are also now able to reduce significantly the time it takes to review contracts — a time consuming task for both corporate and litigation attorneys.
Companies are getting close to developing programs that will be able to do legal research and draft basic contracts. If machines can replace the legions of attorneys currently performing these functions, law firms will need a lot less office space in the future. What about financial services firms? All bank employees currently making trades, creating hedge products and predicting future economic performance may soon be replaced by machines.
Again, as these jobs start to disappear, banks and other financial institutions will need a lot less office space. Law and financial services are just two examples of employers who will be shrinking their ranks in the years ahead.
If Oxford University experts are right and about half of our jobs disappear within the next 20 years, who will be occupying the downtown office buildings? Clearly, AI and other technologies will create many new job opportunities even as they make others obsolete.
Software developers—especially those who are experts in AI — are in high demand today and earning high six-figure salaries in many cases. The automobile industry should boom as manufacturers retool their factories for self-driving vehicles and people around the world trade in their old cars for the newer, smarter ones at least until no one needs to own their own car.
When that happens, we may reach the time when very few people will need or be able to work. What does all of this mean for office space? The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment. Real estate has traditionally been a long-term game where families and large institutions bought and held assets for generations. While there were certainly ebbs and flows in the market, and occasional periods of euphoria and fear, real estate has generally been a good investment if you held on to it long enough.
That long term view is now looking a lot less certain based on current advancements in technology and their impact on employment. And with technological advancements coming at an ever-quickening pace, the world can dramatically change almost overnight. Underwriting real estate will become more difficult and involve more risk as the economy starts to change more rapidly. The risks will no longer be about temporal conditions in the market, but rather permanent and potentially material paradigm shifts in the nature of the workforce.
As a result, we may soon see shorter term leases as companies hedge their bets on head count, and higher cap rates as buyers factor in the risks of shrinking tenant demand. Secondary and tertiary assets, the ones that will be hit first if and when demand contracts, will continue to get repurposed and the prime assets will receive more and more attention from investors as they bet on a tenant flight to quality in a shrinking market.
And for better or for worse, that appears to be the direction in which we are headed. Everything we hear and see tells us that demand for office space is shrinking and that trend is only going to continue. Everyone knows that to get the best deal terms you need to create competition for your requirement. To create competition, you need to have viable options. There are many instances where a tenant may feel like it has no choice but to deal with a single party.
This can arise when the tenant has a significant amount of money invested in its space that it cannot walk away from i. In each of these instances, the tenant may have the theoretical ability to change locations; however, when all is said and done, such a change would be prohibitively expensive or ultimately harm the business.
When options are limited or seemingly non-existent, what can a company do to ensure it still gets a fair economic deal on its lease? A lot of people revert to a favorite strategy of poker players—the bluff. Poker players who have nothing of value in their hands will bet aggressively in the hopes of convincing the other players that they actually have a great hand. Because we are conditioned to believe that people act in an economically rational manner, we tend to believe they have a good hand if they are throwing a lot of chips on the table.
If, however, you can scare them off with your aggressive betting, you may win the pot even though you had a terrible hand. Thus, sometimes when a player wins a hand on a bluff, they will actually turn over the cards and show you that they had nothing.
Because they want to create uncertainty around the table as to their strategy. Other players will refuse to show their bluff hand if the other players drop out of the game. Bluffing in business, however, can be fatal because you only get one shot to do your deal every five or ten years. Further, if you have other leases with this landlord or their broker, your credibility in these other dealings may be questioned. The tenant is now at the mercy of the landlord who knows the tenant has no other options.
Real estate is no different from other purchase decisions we make in life. We all have preferences for different goods or services, but we are not always willing to pay the required premium for our first choice. Thus, more people buy Hondas given the savings or even a Lexus which, though not a Mercedes, is still more high end than a Honda. Options allow us to put things in context and assign relative values to each, so we can determine how much or how little we are willing to spend.
Would it change your price on the Mercedes? The key to making good real estate deals is to create options even if they are not all equal. At some price and on some terms, a third choice can become a first choice and a first choice can fall to your second choice. Too often tenants and their brokers go into negotiations with a closed mind and, as discussed above, they assume the outcome before they even start. If you are convinced that no other space or location will work for you, you will either be at the mercy of the landlord or you will need to bluff your way into a better deal.
Neither is a great position to be in when your business is at stake. Tenants need to keep an open mind about possible alternatives which, at a given price, could be more attractive than the one the favored landlord is offering. Alternatives exist within a given location as well. Assuming you have no leverage or viable alternatives, there are ways to minimize your commitment to the space until facts and circumstances changes.
Bluffing is an effective and critical strategy when playing poker. The key to negotiating a good deal even when you believe you have no alternatives is to keep an open mind and evaluate all options.
Up until the late s, commercial real estate brokers identified available space in the market either 1 through listing work that they were performing for their landlord clients or 2 cold calling to other brokers and landlords.
While residential brokers could search the Multiple Listing Service to find out what houses were for sale, no such database existed for commercial space. As a result, when an office tenant came to ABC Brokerage firm looking for space, the easiest thing to do was show them the space ABC was marketing for its landlord clients.
The more listing work ABC did for landlords, the more product it had to offer the tenant. If none of those spaces fit the bill, ABC would turn to its market analysts who spent their days calling other brokerage firms and landlords for information about vacancies and compiling an ever-changing book of market availabilities.
It was reasonable to conclude that the more brokers who were calling with opportunities, the more likely it was the tenant would ultimately find the right space. Everything changed in with the founding of CoStar, a national database of commercial real estate availabilities. Big brokerage shops who had the most landlord listings and the largest research departments were now on the same footing as small boutique firms who did no listing work at all. There was no longer any magic or risk in space finding and this no longer represented the greatest value that brokers provided tenants.
CoStar, who now has a virtual monopoly on market availabilities after the liquidation of its only real competitor, Xceligent, is what every broker uses to find space for tenants. If a landlord or sublandlord is truly interested in marketing its space, it will insist that its broker include the availability on CoStar to maximize visibility and increase the likelihood of prospects.
Only in extremely rare and sensitive cases will a company tell its broker not to advertise its space. Despite the fact that market information is now a commodity available to all brokers, some tenants still believe that they are best served by working with multiple brokers rather than committing to one. Here is why this approach actually hurts the tenant:. Three decades ago, tenants had good reasons for not wanting to commit to exclusive arrangements with their brokers.
As no one had complete market information, the more brokers they worked with, the more likely it was that the tenant would find the right space. Today, however, information about availabilities is a commodity and every firm is working from the same database. That mix can only occur when the tenant is willing to pick a single advisor and let them run the process.
The pieces seemed perfectly lined up. Facing an easy close-out schedule and holding a conference-leading record, it looked like all that stood between the Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl LII was two potentially home! The team that got there twice but never hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy was electric-sliding their way into Minnesota. Wentz came back in and played through another four snaps, but that was it.
But it would be equally unfair to assume that they had failed to foresee the need for a Plan B or many Plan Bs. In fact, they had proven themselves throughout the season to be masters in this regard, having already found working parts to successfully replace a Pro Bowl left tackle, as well as a featured running back and star middle linebacker.
In the world of professional sports, owners, managers and coaches understand that the best laid plans often go awry. All teams will eventually contend with adversity, and champions plan for it.
Roseman believed that having a true leader, one with gameday experience who was ready to take the reins, was a necessary piece of the puzzle, and that nobody on the roster met those requirements. Lurie trusted Roseman and had always been a believer in Foles, and the rest as they say, is history. A tenant negotiating for office space would be wise to follow the lessons of the World Champions. A negotiating tenant may have selected a favorite location, and negotiations may appear to be running smoothly.
But until a lease is signed, the tenant should do the work necessary to protect its next best option; its viable backup. Any of these situations can torpedo negotiations and, without a viable backup, can leave a tenant in an extremely vulnerable position. The result can be a less-than-ideal outcome, of course, but can also result in extreme financial hardship in the form of expensive holdover rents and potential consequential damages.
In the context of lease negotiation, Plan B takes the form of an acceptable alternative that has been developed to the point of deliverability.